For a decade now, the dominant narrative has been that democracy is in crisis. Almost all global democracy indices have recorded steady declines, largely driven by populist leaders and a sense that democracies are failing to deliver, as well as by protracted economic crises, the COVID-19 pandemic, raging inequality, the spread of fake news and misinformation on social media, and many unjustified police killings.
These dynamics have led to an era of major and multiple crises that reshape political landscapes and demand updated analytical frameworks to explain trends towards and away from democracy. The challenge of navigating these crises—with their profound implications for the future of post-neoliberal capitalism and geopolitics—will determine whether we are entering an era of democratic decay or fundamental renovation.
The conventional wisdom is that democracies are failing, and people have been quick to embrace antidemocratic alternatives. But this view misses key complexities. In some cases, democracy has simply failed to deliver, as in Tunisia where popular frustration with the socioeconomic record of every government that came after the revolution led to President Kais Saied’s self-coup in 2021; in others, democratic backsliding was accelerated by economic slowdowns such as those that afflicted Brazil and Hungary; while in South Korea, an executive order that unleashed antibodies against dangerous threats to democracy was met with a robust response that defied expectations (even though one pardoned insurrectionist had serious criminal convictions pending).
But underlying all these developments is a powerful fact: democratic systems are resilient and, if properly defended, can weather even the most brutal setbacks. Democracy’s last line of defense is civil society—the dense and thriving network of independent policy organizations, interest groups, religious institutions, media outlets, think tanks and universities, and independent businesses that form a thick layer of autonomous capacity to organize and mobilize in the face of abuse, illegality, or incipient tyranny.